Monday, December 18, 2017

Should You Consider Investing/Buying Gold or Bitcoin?

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders just put together this great article comparing Bitcoin against traditional commodities for investing and storing wealth....

Recently, we have been asked by a number of clients about the precious metals and what our advice would be with regards to buying, selling or holding physical or trading positions in the metals.  There are really only a few short and simple answers to this question and they are revolve around the concept of providing a hedge against risk, capital preservation and opportunity for returns.  Let’s explore the details a bit further.
First, Gold, historically, has been and will continue to be the basis of physical wealth for the foreseeable future.  Currently, Gold and Silver are relatively low cost compared to other assets offering similar protection.   As of right now, Gold and Silver are nearing the lowest price ratio levels, historically, that have existed since 1990.  This means, the relationship of the price ratio for Gold and Silver are comparatively low in relationship to how Gold and Silver are priced in peak levels.  So, right now is the time to be acquiring Gold and Silver as a low price hedge against another global crisis event or market meltdown.
People are starting to park their money in digital currencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than parking them in fiat currencies – I buy and hold my currencies in this crypto wallet CoinBase. This is primarily due to the Negative Interest Rate Policy as well as Zero Interest Rate Policy of the Central Banks, which explains the sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin, this year.
Taking a look at this chart of the DOW Index shown in relative Gold Ounce price levels, we can see that every peak in this ratio above 15 or so has resulted in a dramatic ratio level reversion (decline).  This reversion means that asset prices (the DOW price level) declined while the price of Gold rose or stayed relatively stable.  The current level is well above 17 and any peak in this level should start the next rally in precious metals while global equities contract.


Second, the fact that the Gold and Silver price ratio is historically very low (meaning they provide a very good hedging opportunity at historically very low price ratio levels) also means that cash can be traded for physical gold with very limited risk and provide an excellent hedge for inflation, global market crisis events and as long term investments.  Taking advantage of the current market conditions, one has to be aware that crisis events do exist and present a clear risk to future equity investments. 

One could decide to risk further capital hedging with options or short positions as risk becomes more evident, but these are inherently more risky than a physical Gold or Silver investment.  Physical Gold or Silver, especially rare coins which include greater intrinsic value, can provide real capital, real gains, real hedging of risk and real return – whereas the short positions or options are only valuable if the trade is executed to profit.
The relationship of the US Dollar to Gold is key to understanding precious metals valuations.  As the US Dollar increases in value, this puts pressure on the price of Gold because most of the world operates in US Dollars and Gold is typically a hedge against risk and inflation.  Therefore, as the US Dollar increases in value, there is a perceived view that risks and inflation are less of a threat to the global economy.
As this chart, below, shows, the US Dollar is currently settling within a FLAG formation that could result in downside price action – below recent support.  When we consider the first chart, showing the price of Gold being historically very cheap and the ratio being above 17, we must assume that any downside price activity in Gold is a blessing right now because these levels have not been seen since 1999, 1965 or 1929.  In other words, this is potentially a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors.

Lastly, Gold and Silver are very limited in supply on this planet and, unless society decides that Gold or Silver is absolutely worthless as a substance, will likely continue to increase in value.  News that China and Russia are acquiring hundreds of tons of gold each year in preparation for a gold based currency is another set of reasons that you should consider starting your own physical hoard of precious metals.

The most important thing for you to understand about owning physical Gold and Silver is that it is a protective investment that can be liquidated or resold at almost any time in the future.  It can be traded, held, secured and transported easily.  You can physically take possession of your Gold and Silver and be assured that through any banking crisis, global market crisis or major global event, you have enough physical precious metal to operate in a crisis mode and likely attain great wealth/gains in the process.
Think of physical Gold and Silver like an “emergency kit”.  You hope you never need it, but when you do need it, you had better be prepared and have set aside some physical holdings before the crisis event happened.  Out here in California, we keep “Earthquake Kits” with emergency supplies, water, lanterns, food and other essentials.  Well, guess what is included in my Earthquake Kit?  Yup – Gold and Silver in proper quantities that I could barter and trade for items that are essential.
This final chart is the Gold to Silver ratio and is used to identify when price disparity between the two most common precious metals is opportunistic for one metal over the other.  When the price of Gold is high compared to the price of Silver, this ratio will climb.  When the price of Silver increases, because of perceived market risks, this ratio will decline.  Currently, one can see that we are nearing a peak in this ratio chart – meaning that Silver is much cheaper, in relative terms, than gold.  Because of this, investors should consider Silver and Gold as viable wealth protection.
Should another market crisis event unfold, both Silver and Gold will likely rally.  This chart is telling us that Silver will likely rally by a larger percentage value than Gold to result in a decline in this ratio and resulting in closer “parity” between the valuations of these two precious metals.  Again, currently, this is very close to a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors.

The point of my post is that I can think of no reasons why anyone would not want to attain some physical Gold and Silver at today’s prices to protect against known risks, provide a hedge against inflation and crisis events and to protect wealth from what we all know will happen in a crisis event – the banks will close or limit cash availability (think of Greece).  So, it is really up to you to determine if and how you want to prepare for what could happen in the future.  Will you have your “emergency kit” and be prepared or not?
Now is the time to consider building your “emergency kit” and to prepare for the next market crisis event.  Our research team is ready to assist you and to keep you updated with Daily and Weekly update for all the major markets.
Visit The Technical Traders Here to learn more about our services and newsletters today.
Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, December 4, 2017

Forget the Needle, Trade the Haystack

2017 is just about done and it's time to look at what worked and what didn’t. If you have gains, you want to protect them. If you have losses, you want to turn things around. With over 10,000 stocks to choose from, sometimes trading can feel like searching for a needle in a haystack.

But you don’t have to try to pick the right stock in the ‘haystack’. With Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), you can just buy the whole haystack, especially when you’re taking advantage of ETF options.

To show you the right way to take advantage of ETF options, our friend John Carter, CEO of Simpler Trading, is putting on a live FREE interactive webinar just for our readers.

Register Here

If you haven’t heard of John before, he’s traded for over 25 years. He’s not only written a bestselling book on trading [check out Mastering the Trade right here], he’s also earned quite a reputation for catching huge moves.

2017 over $600 billion was poured into ETFs and John sees an even bigger year ahead in 2018. That’s why he’s so focused on his ETF options strategy. You can hedge against your portfolio while limiting your risk. You can even profit from your hedge.

John covers all that, plus:

  *   Why ETFs have powerful advantages even the newest of traders can exploit

  *   When to go for maximum leverage using double and TRIPLE leverage ETF options

  *   How ETF traders can cherry pick sectors to always ‘follow the big money’

  *   How to properly hedge against corrections and crashes without erasing gains

  *   How to take full advantage of the new Bitcoin ETF when it arrives

  *   The latest tools for identifying setups with the potential for triple digit gains (or more)


And a whole lot more.…

When it comes to ETF strategies, the opportunities are vast, There’s something for just about every trading style, from day trading to long term positions, and of course, hedging your portfolio. We got John to break it down for you and make it as simple as possible to maximize your profit potential through ETF options.

If you’re interested, go ahead and grab a spot for this training.

Go HERE to Register

See you Tuesday night!

Simpler Trading

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Capital Repositioning Driving Volatility Higher

Recent moves in the FANG stocks shows that capital is starting to reposition within the global market.  As the end of the year approaches, expect more of this type of capital control to drive greater volatility within the markets.  At this time of year, especially after such a fantastic bullish run, it is not uncommon to see capital move out of high flying equities and into cash or other investments.
The recent move lower in the NQ has taken many by surprise, but the bullish run in the FANG stocks has been tremendous.  Facebook was higher +59% for 2017 (600% 2016 levels).  Amazon was up +61% for 2017 (550% 2016 levels).  Netflix was up +64.75% for 2017 (600% 2016 levels) and Google was higher by +37% for 2017 (1000% 2016 levels).  These are huge increases in capital valuation.
In early 2017, we authored an article about how capital works and always seeks out the best returns in any environment.  It was obvious from the moves this year that capital rushed into the US markets with the President Trump’s win and is now concerned that the end of the year may be cause to pull away from the current environment.
The current decline in the NQ, -2.25% so far, is not a huge decline in price yet.  Lower price support is found near the $6000 level.  Should this “Price Flight” continue in the NASDAQ, we could be looking at a 6~8% decline, or greater, going into the end of this year.
The price swing, this week, was very fast and aggressive.  In terms of capital, this was a massive price rotation away from Technology.  While the S&P and DOW Industrials continue higher, this presents a cause for concern with regards to the end of year expectations.
Will capital continue to rush into the US markets and specifically Technology stocks?  Or will capital rush out of these equities and into other sources of “safety” as technology melts down into the end of 2017?  Has the 40~60%+ price rally of 2017 been enough for investors to take their profits and run?
It is quite possible that capital will move to the sidelines through the end of this year and reenter the markets early next year as investors find a better footing for the markets.  The facts are, currently, that financials and transportation seem to be doing much better than the FANG stocks.  If this continues, we could be looking at a broader shift in the global markets – almost like a second technology bubble burst.
If you want to learn more about how we can assist you with your investment needs, visit The Technical Traders Here to learn more.  Our researchers are dedicated to assisting you and in helping you learn to profit from these moves.  2018 is certain to be a dynamic trading year – so don’t miss out.


Stock & ETF Trading Signals


Monday, November 20, 2017

Could a Bitcoin Blowout coincide with a Major Market Blowout?

Our team of researchers continues to attempt to identify market strengths and weakness in the US major markets by identifying key, underlying factors of the markets and how they relate to one another.

Recently, we’ve been warning of a potentially explosive bullish move in Metals and our last article highlighted the weakness in the Transportation Index as it relates to the US major markets. 

On November 2, 2017, we warned that the NQ volatility would be excessive and that any move near or below 6200 would likely prompt support to drive prices higher as our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model was showing wide volatility and the potential for rotation moves.

This week, we are attempting to highlight a potential move in Bitcoin that could disrupt the global economy and more traditional investment vehicles.  For the past few years, Bitcoin has been on a terror to the upside.  Recently, a 30% downside price rotation caused a bit of panic in the Crypto world.  This -30% decline was fast and left some people wondering what could happen if something deeper were to happen – where would Crypto’s find a bottom.  From that -30% low, Bitcoin has recovered to previous highs (near $8000) and have stalled – interesting.
While discussing Bitcoin with some associates a while back, I heard rumor that a move to Bitcoin CASH was underway and that Bitcoin would collapse as some point in the near future. The people I was meeting with were very well connected in this field and were warning me to alert me in case I had any Bitcoin holdings (which I do).  I found it interesting that these people were moving into the Bitcoin CASH market as fast as they could.  What did they know that I didn’t know and how could any potential Bitcoin blowout drive the global markets?
Panic breeds fear and fear drives the markets (fear or greed).  If Bitcoin were to increase volatility beyond the most recent move (-30% in 4 days) – what could happen to the Crypto markets if a bubble collapse or fundamental collapse happened?


How would the major markets react to a Crypto market collapse that destroyed billions in capital?  For this, we try to rely on our modeling systems and our understanding of the major markets.  Let’s get started by looking at the NASDAQ with two modeling systems (the Fibonacci Price Modeling System and the Adaptive Dynamic Learning system).
This first chart is a Daily Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) model representation of what this modeling system believes will be the highest probability outcome of price going forward 20 days.  Notice that we are asking it to show use what it believes will happen from last week’s trading activity (ignoring anything prior).  This provides us the most recent and relevant data to review.
We can see from the “range lines” (the red and green price range levels shown on the chart), that upside price range is rather limited to recent highs whereas downside prices swing lower (to near 6200 and below) rather quickly.  Additionally, the highest probability price moves indicate that we could see some downside price rotation over the Thanksgiving week followed by a retest of recent high price levels throughout the end of November.


This NQ Weekly chart, below, is showing our Fibonacci price modeling system and the fact that we are currently in an extended bullish run that, so far, shows no signs of stalling.  The Fibonacci Price Breach Level (the red line near the right side of the chart) is showing us that we should be paying attention to the 6075 level for any confirmation of a bearish trend reversal.  Notice how that aligns with the blue projected downside support level (projected into future price levels).  Overall, for the NQ or the US majors to show any signs of major weakness, these Fibonacci levels would have to be tested and breached.  Until that happens, expect continued overall moderate bullish price activity.  When it happens, look out below.

The next charts we are going to review are the Metals markets (Gold and Silver).  Currently, an interesting setup is happening with Silver.  It appears to show that volatility in the Silver market will be potentially much greater than the volatility in the Gold market.  This would indicate that Silver would be the metal to watch going into and through the end of this year.  This first chart is showing the ADL modeling system and highlighting the volatility and price predictions that are present in the Silver market.  Pay attention to the facts that ranges and price projections are rather stable till about 15 days out – that’s when we are seeing a massive upside potential in Silver.
This next chart is the Fibonacci Price Modeling system on a Weekly Silver chart.  What is important here is the recent price rotation that has setup the Fibonacci Price Breach trigger to the upside (currently).  This move is telling us that as long as price stays above $16.89 on a Weekly closing price basis, then Silver should attempt to push higher and higher over time.  The projected target levels are $19.50, $20.25 and $21.45.  Notice any similarity in price levels between the Fibonacci analysis and the ADL analysis?  Yes, that $16.89 level is clearly identified as price range support by the ADL modeling system (the red price range expectation lines).


How will this playout in our opinion with Bitcoin potentially rotating lower off this double top while the metals appear to be basing and potentially reacting to fear in the market?  Allow us to explain what we believe will be the most likely pathway forward…
At first, this holiday week in the US, the markets will be quiet and not show many signs of anything.  Just another holiday week in the US with the markets mostly moderately bullish – almost on auto-pilot for the holidays.  Then closing in on the end of November, we could start to see some increased volatility and price rotation in the metals and the US majors.  If Bitcoin has moved by this time, we would expect that it would be setting up a rotational low above the -30% lows recently set.  In other words, Bitcoin would likely fall 8~15% on rotation, then stall before attempting any further downside moves.
By the end of November, we expect the US markets to have begun a price pattern formation that indicates sideways/stalling price activity moving into the end of this year.  This ADL Daily ES Chart clearly shows what is predicted going forward 20 days with price rotating near current highs for a few days before settling lower (near 2540~2550 through early Christmas 2017).  The ADL projected highs are not much higher than recent high price levels, therefore we do not expect the ES to attempt to push much higher than 2595 in the immediate future.  It might try to test this level or rotate a bit higher as a washout high, but our analysis shows that prices should be settling into complacency for the next week or two while settling near the lower range of recent price activity.


What you should take away from this analysis is the following : don’t expect any massive upside moves between now and the end of the year that last longer than a few days.  Don’t expect the markets to rocket higher unless there is some unexpected positive news from somewhere that changes the current expectations.  Expect Silver to begin to move higher in early December as well as expect Gold to follow Silver.  We believe Silver is the metal to watch as it will likely be the most volatile and drive the metals move.  Expect the major markets to be quiet through the Thanksgiving week with a potential for moderate bullish price activity before settling into a complacent retracement mode through the end of November and early December.
If Bitcoin does what we expect by creating a rotational lower price breakout setup from recent highs, we’ll know within a week or two.  If this $8000 level holds as resistance, then we will clearly see Bitcoin rotate into a defensive market pattern (a flag formation or some other harmonic pattern above support).  The US majors will likely follow this move as a broader fear could begin gripping the markets.
Lastly, as we mentioned last week, pay very close attention to the Transportation Index and it’s ability to find/hold support.  Unless the Transportation index finds some level of support and begins a new bullish trend, we could be in for a more dramatic move early next year.  Our last article clearly laid out our concerns regarding the Transportation Index and the broader market cycles.  All of our analysis should be taken as segments of a much larger market picture.  We are setting up for an interesting holiday season where the market could turn in an instant on fear or news of some global event (like a Bitcoin collapse).  The volatility we are seeing our modeling systems predict is increasing (especially in the Silver market over the next few weeks).  We could be headed for a bumpy ride with a classic top formation setting up.


Overall, protect your investments and your long positions.  Many people will be away from their PCs and away from the markets over the holidays.  It is important that you understand the risks that continue to play out in the markets.  Pay attention to market sectors that are at risk of showing us greater fear or weakness in the major markets.  Pay attention to these increases in volatility and price rotation.  Most of all, pay attention to the market’s failure to move higher over this holiday season because we should be traditionally expecting the Christmas Rally to push equities moderately higher at this time.
Should we see any more clear signs of weakness or market rotation, you will know about it with our regular updates to the public.  If you want to know how Acitve Trading Partners can assist you in staying up to day with the market cycles and analysis, then visit the Active Trading Partners and learn how we can assist you with detailed market research, daily updates, trading signals and more.
We are dedicated to helping you achieve success in the markets and do our best to make sure you are prepared for any future market moves.  See how we can assist you now and in 2018 to achieve greater success.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

The Iron Rule of the Financial Markets

This math formula that can literally predict the market:    dxt=θ(μ−xt)dt+σdWt

John Bogle the founder of The Vanguard Group, calls it the iron rule of the financial markets. Jason Zweig from the Wall Street Journal says it’s the most powerful law in finance.

Legendary trader James O'Shaughnessy says that historically, we have always seen it driving stocks. And over the last 8 years it could have paid you well in consistent reliable profits.

Now I’m Going To Show You How It Works ← Click Here

If you trade it with options it could produce rapid two week individual trade profits like....

  *  204% on XLU Put Options

  *  124% on XLE Call Options

  *  And even as much as 998% on XLE Put Options

  *  All in precisely two weeks - no more, no less.

Get The Facts ← Click Here

My trading partner Todd Mitchell has recorded a three video series explaining how it works. He’s making it available to you now - 100% for FREE.

This series will only be available for a very limited time. If you want to watch…

Visit Here to Check it Out Right Now

See you in the Markets!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader




Monday, October 2, 2017

Engineering Regular Income and Profits from Your Trading

Today's article is from my trading partner, Brian McAboy of Inside Out Trading.  Brian is a retired engineer and has a rather unconventional yet very effective approach to helping people become successful traders.  He's been helping traders for over 11 years, so he's been around long enough to know what works and what doesn't.

Take just a minute for this.  You'll be glad you did.


There are two very specific success traits that pertain to you and your trading. The first one is absolutely necessary for you to give yourself a reasonable chance of making it. And the second one is to keep you from wasting tons of time, money and psychological capital

Now as you know, trading is not a "get rich quick" kind of activity. This is NOT a place where anyone off the street can stroll in, grab a system, start throwing money at the markets and live happily ever after. Just doesn't work like that

Trading IS a true profession, a skill based occupation, and not a place for the squeamish or weak of heart. So for a person to expect to be "living the lifestyle" overnight is just not realistic. But the question then becomes, "How long should it realistically take?"

Too many traders let things go way too long in a less than satisfactory state

They simply let time to continue to pass, doing things generally the same way they have been for months on end, with the same disappointing results, well beyond what is really a reasonable time to allow

You see, there are generally two aspects of patience when it comes to trading:
  1. You have to be patient enough for things happen, for your trading to develop and mature.
  2. The other side of patience is knowing when you've reached a point where it's pretty obvious that your current approach just isn't working and it's time to stop, reassess, and change course.
"How long should it take?" is a common question, and the real answer is that you can get to the point of real, business like, reliable consistent profits in 3 to 6 months, a year at the outside

If it's taking YEARS, then something is wrong and you're really just spinning your wheels, wasting time and money and cheating yourself out of the success that you should be enjoying. There is also a huge personal cost to letting things take longer than they should

One trader expressed this very well,
"I've been trading futures for about 9 years now with inconsistent results.  I've made the usual mistakes, buying too many courses, focusing on the results not the process and being too impatient to trade to wait for valid setups. 

After listening to your video this weekend where you make the distinction between being patient in the beginning and giving yourself time, and beyond a certain point (3 - 6months) considering that it may be time to be impatient about your progress, this made me realize I've been allowing myself to coast for far too long, and that's impacted my confidence and the belief that I can turn trading into a business with a consistent return." 
Complacency, NOT being impatient when it's time to, is one of the biggest cost centers many traders have

There's the financial cost of missed profits and unnecessary losses, plus the opportunity costs of not enjoying the fruits of your time being spent on other matters of course, but she noted the personal, psychological cost as well

The thing is, you chose trading so that you could have freedom, financial and time freedom, not a J-O-B. You wanted trading to be a truly enjoyable activity that generates income and wealth and provides security and peace of mind

If you've been trading for more than a year, and your trading is not where you want it to be, nor is it really even close, and looking at the trajectory that you're now on, it doesn't look like you're going to get there anytime soon, then perhaps it's time to consider a different approach. That's why I suggest that you check out the training masterclass I created for you

Here are the details on the masterclass,

 "Rewrite Your Trading Story"

How to become a confident, consistent and profitable trader in 60 days or less even if you've never had a profitable month.

Here's what you will discover....
  • The "Little 3" and the "Big 3" and Why the Wrong Focus Will Have You Chasing Profits Forever
  • "The Gap" and How It Keeps Traders Jumping From One System to the Next, Without Ever Realizing The 'Easy Consistent Profits' Promised by the System Sellers
  • One Specific 'Hidden' Lie Traders Tell Themselves That Continually Drains Your Time, Capital and Confidence
  • Why Self Sabotage Goes On For YEARS For Most Traders, And How To Permanently Eliminate It From Your Trading
  • The Four Stage Process To Make YOUR Trading Profitable And Predictable
Click Here to Register and Move the Needle in Your Trading

See you in the markets!
Brian McAboy
Trading Business Coach



Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Hidden Gems Shows A Foreboding Future

A quick look at any of the US majors will show most investors that the markets have recently been pushing upward towards new all time highs. These traditional market instruments can be misleading at times when relating the actual underlying technical and fundamental price activities. Today, we are going to explore some research using our custom index instruments that we use to gauge and relate more of the underlying market price action.

What if we told you to prepare for a potentially massive price swing over the next few months? What if we told you that the US and Global markets are setting up for what could be the “October Surprise of 2017” and very few analysts have identified this trigger yet? Michael Bloomberg recently stated “I cannot for the life of me understand why the market keeps going up”. Want to know why this perception continues and what the underlying factors of market price activity are really telling technicians?

At ATP we provide full time dedicated research and trading signal solution for professional and active traders. Our research team has dedicated thousands or hours into developing a series of specialized modeling systems and analysis tools to assist us in finding successful trading opportunities as well as key market fundamentals. In the recent past, we have accurately predicted multiple VIX Spikes, in some cases to the exact day, and market signals that have proven to be great successes for our clients. Today, we’re going to share with you something that you may choose to believe or not – but within 60 days, we believe you’ll be searching the internet to find this article again knowing ATP (Active Trading Partners) accurately predicted one of the biggest moves of the 21st century. Are you ready?

Let’s start with the SPY. From the visual analysis of the chart, below, it would be difficult for anyone to clearly see the fragility of the US or Global markets. This chart is showing a clearly bullish trend with the perception that continued higher highs should prevail.



Additionally, when we review the QQQ we see a similar picture. Although the volatility is typically greater in the NASDAQ vs. the S&P, the QQQ chart presents a similar picture. Strong upward price activity in addition to historically consistent price advances. What could go wrong with these pictures – right? The markets are stronger than ever and as we’ve all heard “it’s different this time”.


Most readers are probably saying “yea, we’ve heard it before and we know – buy the dips”.

Recently, we shared some research with you regarding longer term time/price cycles (3/7/10 year cycles) and prior to that, we’ve been warning of a Sept 28~29, 2017 VIX Spike that could be massive and a “game changer” in terms of trend. We’ve been warning our members that this setup in price is leading us to be very cautious regarding new trading signals as volatility should continue to wane prior to this VIX Spike and market trends may be muted and short lived. We’ve still made a few calls for our clients, but we’ve tried to be very cautious in terms of timing and objectives.

Right now, the timing could not be any better to share this message with you and to “make it public” that we are making this prediction. A number of factors are lining up that may create a massive price correction in the near future and we want to help you protect your investments and learn to profit from this move and other future moves. So, as you read this article, it really does not matter if you believe our analysis or not – the proof will become evident (or not) within less than 60 days based on our research. One way or another, we will be proven correct or incorrect by the markets.

Over the past 6+ years, capital has circled the globe over and over attempting to find suitable ROI. It is our belief that this capital has rooted into investment vehicles that are capable of producing relatively secure and consistent returns based on the global economy continuing without any type of adverse event. In other words, global capital is rather stable right now in terms of sourcing ROI and capital deployment throughout the globe. It would take a relatively massive event to disrupt this capital process at the moment.

Asia/China are pushing the upper bounds of a rather wide trading channel and price action is setting up like the SPY and QQQ charts, above. A clear upper boundary is evident as well as our custom vibrational/frequency analysis arcs that are warning us of a potential change in price trend. You can see from the Red Arrow we’ve drawn, any attempt to retest the channel lows would equate to an 8% decrease in current prices.


Still, there is more evidence that we are setting up for a potentially massive global price move. The metals markets are the “fear/greed” gauge of the planet (or at least they have been for hundreds of years). When the metals spike higher, fear is entering the markets and investors avoid share price risks. When the metals trail lower, greed is entering the markets and investors chase share price value.

Without going into too much detail, this custom metals chart should tell you all you need to know. Our analysis is that we are nearing the completion of Wave C within an initial Wave 1 (bottom formation) from the lows in Dec 2016. Our prediction is that the completion of Wave #5 will end somewhere above the $56 level on this chart (> 20%+ from current levels). The completion of this Wave #5 will lead to the creation of a quick corrective wave, followed by a larger and more aggressive upward expansion wave that could quickly take out the $75~95 levels. Quite possibly before the end of Q1 2018.


We’ve termed this move the “Rip your face off Metals Rally”. You can see from this metals chart that we have identified multiple cycle and vibrational/frequency cycles that are lining up between now and the end of 2017. It is critical to understand the in order for this move to happen, a great deal of fear needs to reenter the global markets. What would cause that to happen??

Now for the “Hidden Gem”....

We’ve presented some interesting and, we believe, accurate market technical analysis. We’ve also been presenting previous research regarding our VIX Spikes and other analysis that has been accurate and timely. Currently, our next VIX Spike projection is Sept 28~29, 2017. We believe this VIX Spike could be much larger than the last spike highs and could lead to, or correlate with, a disruptive market event. We have ideas of what that event might be like, but we don’t know exactly what will happen at this time or if the event will even become evident in early October 2017. All we do know is the following....

The Head-n-Shoulders pattern we first predicted back in June/July of this year has nearly completed and we have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will be retested. This is the Hidden Gem. This is our custom US Index that we use to filter out the noise of price activity and to more clearly identify underlying technical and price pattern formations. You saw from the earlier charts that the Head n Shoulders pattern was not clearly visible on the SPY or QQQ charts – but on THIS chart, you can’t miss it.

It is a little tough to see on this small chart but, one can see the correlation of our cycle analysis, the key dates of September 28~29 aligning perfectly with vibration/frequency cycles originating from the start of the “head” formation. We have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will likely be retested and, should it fail, we could see a massive price move to the downside.


What you should expect over the next 10~14 trading days is simple to understand.

Expect continued price volatility and expanded rotation in the US majors.
  • Expect the VIX to stay below 10.00 for only a day or two longer before hinting at a bigger spike move (meaning moving above 10 or 11 as a primer)
  • Expect the metals markets to form a potential bottom pattern and begin to inch higher as fear reenters the markets _ Expect certain sectors to show signs of weakness prior to this move (possibly technology, healthcare, bio-tech, financials, lending)
  • Expect the US majors to appear to “dip” within a 2~4% range and expect the news cycles to continue the “buy the dip” mantra.
The real key to all of this is what happens AFTER October 1st and for the next 30~60 days after. This event will play out as a massive event or a non event. What we do know is that this event has been setting up for over 5 months and has played out almost exactly as we have predicted. Now, we are 10+ days away from a critical event horizon and we are alerting you well in advance that it is, possibly, going to be a bigger event.

Now, I urge all of you to visit our website to learn more about what we do and how we provide this type of advanced analysis and research for our clients. We also provide clear and timely trading signals to our clients to assist them in finding profitable trading opportunities based on our research. Our team of dedicated analysts and researchers do our best to bring you the best, most accurate and advanced research we can deliver. The fact that we called this Head-n-Shoulders formation back in June/July and called multiple VIX Spike events should be enough evidence to consider this call at least a strong possibility.

If you want to take full advantage of the markets to profit from these moves, then join us today here at the Active Trading Partners and become a member.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals





Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Positioning for “Swan Type” Disasters

Recently, the US, China and portions of SE Asia have been hit by massive hurricanes and cyclones. As investors, it is often difficult to understand the mechanics of how these types of disasters result in opportunities while thousands are attempting to rebuild and survive. Yet, as investors, it is our job to prepare for these outcomes and attempt to foresee risk and opportunities.
Over the weekend, we expecting Hurricane Irma to hit Florida and most of the South US, one should be asking the question, “How will this drive the markets over the next few weeks/months?” Let’s explore this question with some hard data and analysis.
US Population Density
The population in the South Eastern US is rather dense. There are also a number of key economic locations that could be disrupted if the storms starts to drift eastward.

Economic Output by Region


Consider that the South Eastern US represents a minimum of 1.6~2.2% annual GDP output.
When one considers the amount of destruction, disruption and economic decline that could be the immediate result of disasters such as hurricanes, one has to think about how the global markets will react to this level and type of event?
In comparison to the other geographic regions of the US, the South Eastern portion of the US still represents a substantially large portion of annual economic output/activity.

A massive disruption as well as asset revaluation event could cause a “blip” in the US GDP representing at least 2~3 tenths of a percent and could result in hundreds of billions in actual losses, economic output losses and infrastructure destruction.
Because of this, and other potential future events, we are concerned that the US markets may be headed for a correction event or bear market event in the near future. In the past, we have attempted to illustrate this potential by highlighting cycle events, key market breakouts and trends and, most recently, highlighted the 3-7-10 year cycle structures that play out in all markets. Now, we are setting up for an event that may unfold over the next 30~90 days as a “swan type event” that few are preparing for.
The US Dollar continues to slide. Our analysis showed that $92 was key support. Recently this level has been broken and we are concerned that the US Dollar may continue to slide lower. Overall, in terms of global competition, this may not be a tremendous hit. But in terms of purchasing power and the existing dominance of the US Dollar for trade, we could see some pressure in other areas.

In relation, our custom China/SE Asia Index is pushing toward the upward range of our price channel and could rotate lower on a Swan-type event (like a debt issue or political issue).



Oil is breaking downward as these global events and the transition to slower consumption continues to drive supply higher and higher. We could continue to see Oil based “Mini Swan Events” in countries that are dependent on Oil prices and income to support their economies.


US Banking and Insurance firms are sure to take increased risks with these types of events. As borrowers are displaced because of a “Swan type Event” and refocus on immediate needs/issues, delinquencies in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and others will spike (quickly). This becomes a matter of survival (much like after the 2009 Credit Market Crisis) where people made choices to support immediate needs and not long term credit needs.


Metals, of course, have already started to make a move higher because of the risk of these events and global risks. Although, we still believe a short-term move lower (almost like a relief move) will play out over the next few weeks that will be the opportunity we have been waiting for. This move will allow investors to position metals trades for the potential longer term Swan event outcomes.

Lastly, our US Custom Index is continuing to provide a much clearer and defined picture of the Head-n-Shoulders formation that has us fixated on the potential of our VIX Spike dates, major cycle events, key rotations and, now, these potentially massive “Swan type events” to correlate into almost a Super-Swan Event. These hurricanes are passing events – they go away eventually. An economic event is something that takes much longer to resolve and restore. Much like the 2009 Credit Market Crisis, the results of a Swan type event can be long lasting and can result in massive asset revaluation.
We’re not saying the global markets are going to fall into another 2009 type event, but we are saying that our analysis is showing that “some type of event is setting up and IF it turned into a Super Swan event, then YOU (the investor) need to be aware of this potential”. If it simply turns into a correction or minor downturn, then you still need to be aware of this potential so you can profit from it – either way.


What will it take to setup and execute a series of trades that help protect against this type of possible Swan Event?
Join Active Trading Partners [visit here] today to learn more and follow our daily research reports to assist you in preparing for just this type of event. There is not a lot of time left before these potential events begin to play out. ATP will assist you by finding great trading opportunities and keeping you informed of the markets setups and potential moves/cycles.
Are you ready for the next Super-Swan Event? If not, join Active Trading Partners today.


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, August 28, 2017

VIX Spikes Showing Massive Volatility Increase

Today, we are going to revisit some of our earlier analysis regarding the VIX and our beloved VIX Spikes.  Over the past 3+ months, we’ve been predicting a number of VIX Spikes based on our research and cycle analysis.  Our original analysis of the VIX Spike patterns has been accurate 3 out of 4 instances (75%).  Our analysis has predicted these spikes within 2 to 4 days of the exact spike date.  The most recent VIX Spike shot up 57% from the VIX lows.  What should we expect in the future?

Well, this is where we should warn you that our analysis is subjective and may not be 100% accurate as we can’t accurately predict what will happen in the future. Our research team at Active Trading Partners.com attempt to find highly correlative trading signals that allow our members to develop trading strategies and allow us to deliver detailed and important analysis of the US and global markets.

The research team at ATP is concerned that massive volatility is creeping back into the global markets. The most recent VIX spike was nearly DOUBLE the size of the previous spike. Even though the US markets are clearly range bound and rotating, we expect them to stay within ranges that would allow for the VIX to gradually increase through a succession of VIX spike patterns in the future.

Let’s review some of our earlier analysis before we attempt to make a case for the future. Our original VIX Spike article indicated we believed a massive VIX spike would happen near June 29th. We warned of this pattern nearly 3 weeks ahead of the spike date. Below, you will see the chart of the VIX and spikes we shared with our members. This forecast was originally created on June 7th and predicted potential spikes on June 9th or 12th and June 29th.



What would you do if you knew these spikes were happening?

Currently, we need to keep in mind the next VIX Spike Dates
Sept 11th or 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th.

Our continued research has shown that the US markets are setting up for a potential massive Head-n-Shoulders pattern (clearly indicated in this NQ Chart). The basis of this analysis is that the US markets are reacting to Political and Geo-Economic headwinds by stalling/retracing. The rally after the US Presidential election was “elation” regarding possibilities for increased global economic activities. And, as such, we have seen an increase in manufacturing and GDP output over the past 6+ months. Yet, the US and global markets may have jumped the gun a bit and rallied into “hype” setting up a potential corrective move.



Currently, the NQ would have to fall an additional 4.5% to reach the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders formation. One interesting facet of the current NQ chart is that is setting up in a FLAG FORMATION that would indicate a massive breakout/breakdown is imminent. The cycle dates that correspond to this move are the September 11th or 12th move.



Please understand that we are attempting to keep you informed as to the potential for a massive volatility spike in the US and Global markets related to what we believe are eminent Political and Geo-Economic factors. Central Banks have just met in Jackson Hole, WY and have been discussing their next moves as well as the US Fed reducing their balance sheets. Overall, the US economy appears to show some strength, yet as we have shown, delinquencies have started to rise and this is not a positive sign for a mature economic cycle. Expectations are that the US Fed will attempt another one or two rate raises before the end of 2017. Our analysis shows that Janet Yellen should be moving at a snail’s pace at this critical juncture.


The last, most recent, VIX Spike was nearly DOUBLE the size of the previous Spike. This is an anomaly in the sense that the VIX has, with only a few exceptions, continued to contract as the global central banks continued to support the world’s economies. In other words, smooth sailing ahead as long as the global banks were supplying capital for the recovery.

Now that we are at a point where the central banks are attempting to remove capital from their balance sheets while raising rates and dealing with debt issues, the markets are looking at this with a fresh perspective and the VIX is showing us early warning signs that massive volatility may be reentering the global markets. Any future VIX Spike cycles that continue to increase in range would be a clear indication that FEAR is entering the markets again and that debt, contraction and decreased consumer participation are at play.

I don’t expect you to fully understand the chart and analysis below, but the take away is this. Pay attention to these dates: September 11, September 28 and October 16. These are the dates that will likely see increased price volatility associated with them and could prompt some very big moves.



This analysis brings us to an attempt at creating a conclusion for our readers. First, our current analysis of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern in the NQ is still valid. We do not have any indication of a change in trend or analysis at this moment. Thus, we are still operating under the presumption that this pattern will continue to form. Secondly, the current VIX spike aligns perfectly with our analysis that the markets are becoming more volatile as the VIX WEDGE tightens and as the potential for the Head-n-Shoulders pattern extends. Lastly, FEAR and CONCERN has begun to enter the market as we are seeing moves in the Metals and Equities that portend a general weakness by investors.

We will add the following that you won’t likely see from other researchers – the time to act is NOT NOW. Want to know why this is the case and why we believe our analysis will tell us exactly when to act to develop maximum profits from these moves?

Join the Active Trading Partners to learn why and to stay on top of these patterns as they unfold. We’ve been accurate with our VIX Spike predictions and we will soon see how our Head and Shoulders predictions play out. We’ve already alerted you to the new VIX Spike dates (these alone are extremely valuable). We are actively advising our ATP members regarding opportunities and trading signals that we believe will deliver superior profits. Isn’t it time you invested in your future and prepared for these moves?



Join the Active Trading Partners HERE today and Join a team dedicated to your success.


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Friday, August 18, 2017

How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

Maybe you were lucky enough to get a seat at this weeks free webinar with our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Trading. If you didn't we have good news. John has agreed to come back with another one this upcoming Thursday August 24th to make sure everybody gets a chance to see this.

In this special free training John will show us how he predicts big moves in the market with his "10X Trade Formula"

If you have attended one of John's free trading webinar you know, they fill up to capacity and they fill up fast. So we are putting the word out early so our readers can make sure they get a reserved seat and keep it.

It all takes place Thursday August 24th, 2017 at 8:00 pm est [ 5 pm pacific and 7 pm central]

Reserve Your Spot Here

Here's just some of what we will cover....

    *   The Explosive Setup that Bought John a 200 Acre Ranch on ONE 24 Hour TSLA Trade

    *   How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

    *   How John Caught Some of the Decade’s Biggest Moves (Including the 2008 Crash)

    *   The Smart Way to Exploit the Obscene Profit Potential of Put and Call Options

    *   How to Avoid Heartbreaking Mistakes that Wipe Out Massive Profits

    *   When to Bet Small and When to ‘Load the Boat’ for a Potential Home Run

    *   How to Predict ‘Explosions and Implosions’ with Shocking Accuracy and Limited Risk

Join John Carter for this Special Presentation



Reserve Your Spot Here


BONUS: Those who attend the webinar live will receive a FREE copy of John's popular psychology class, "The Billionaire Mindset." 


Friday, August 4, 2017

How to Turn Dimes into Dollars Catching Volatility Explosions - Next Free Webinar

Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Trading is back with another one of his ground breaking free webinars. In this special free training John will show us how he predicts big moves in the market with his "10X Trade Formula"

If you have attended one of John's free trading webinar you know, they fill up to capacity and they fill up fast. So we are putting the word out early so our readers can make sure they get a reserved seat and keep it.

It all takes place Thursday August 17th, 2017 at 8:00 pm est [ 5 pm pacific and 7 pm central]

Reserve Your Spot Here

Here's just some of what we will cover....

    *   The Explosive Setup that Bought John a 200 Acre Ranch on ONE 24 Hour TSLA Trade

    *   How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

    *   How John Caught Some of the Decade’s Biggest Moves (Including the 2008 Crash)

    *   The Smart Way to Exploit the Obscene Profit Potential of Put and Call Options

    *   How to Avoid Heartbreaking Mistakes that Wipe Out Massive Profits

    *   When to Bet Small and When to ‘Load the Boat’ for a Potential Home Run

    *   How to Predict ‘Explosions and Implosions’ with Shocking Accuracy and Limited Risk

Join John Carter for this Special Presentation



Reserve Your Spot Here


BONUS: Those who attend the webinar live will receive a FREE copy of John's popular psychology class, "The Billionaire Mindset." 


Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!



There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.



In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

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